Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Improve After Fed Announcement Wed, 10 Dec 2025 21:02:00 GMT
The Fed cut its policy rate by 0.25% today and mortgage rates moved lower after the announcement. That said, those two developments are not related. In fact, there was no movement in the bonds that underlie mortgage rates when the rate cut was announced. Instead, the market (and rates) moved in response to Fed Chair Powell's press conference. While there is a mistaken belief that such press conferences "always" result in upward pressure on rates, today shows they can go both ways. Key comments that may have helped: Powell: Job gains could have been overstated in recent months Powell: Growing evidence that inflation is coming down Powell: Rates are now in a high range of neutral The reference to "neutral" means the Fed Funds Rate is near the levels that should neither help nor hurt the economy. Being in the higher end of that range means there could be room for another rate cut or two in 2026. This possibility was already reflected in the rate forecasts that came out with today's announcement, but the market appreciated hearing it from Powell. Up until Powell's press conference, mortgage rates had been little changed from yesterday. Afterward, most lenders made mid-day changes resulting in the lowest rates of the week.
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Can The Fed Pull Mortgage Rates Off The Ceiling? Tue, 09 Dec 2025 20:59:00 GMT
Mortgage rates were surprisingly steady on Tuesday with most lenders roughly in line with Monday's levels. Why surprising?  Because the bond market was noticeably weaker and bonds dictate day to day mortgage rate movement. In Tuesday's case, we can actually reconcile the steadiness with the timing of bond market movement. Specifically, bonds didn't lose ground until after the 10am release of the Job Openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most mortgage lenders consider bond market levels before 10am when setting rates for the day. The implication is that if bonds are at the same levels tomorrow morning, the average lender would set rates higher. Tomorrow afternoon brings another potential source of volatility in the form of the latest Fed announcement.  The most important thing to understand about tomorrow's probably Fed rate cut is that it is NOT a mortgage rate cut.  In fact, mortgage rates have been more likely to move higher following recent Fed cuts. Even then, the cut itself is not the news the market is waiting for. Rather, traders are interested to see each Fed member's rate outlook via the quarterly release of the Fed's economic projections. In addition, every Fed meeting includes a press conference with the Fed Chair and bonds have often made the biggest moves in response. Bottom line: the rate cut means nothing for mortgage rates. Volatility will come from the 2pm ET dot plot (the chart that shows each Fed members' rate outlook) and the 2:30pm press conference.
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Mortgage Rates Start Week Near 3 Month Highs Mon, 08 Dec 2025 21:02:00 GMT
Both stocks and bonds lost ground on Monday. This pushed mortgage rates up near their highest levels in just over 3 months (because mortgages are based on bond prices).  To put the 3-month highs in perspective, today's rates are right in line with those seen 2 weeks ago. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] When we see a larger-than-average shift in rates, it's often attributable to an obvious catalyst. These can be things like economic reports, comments from the Fed, or geopolitical developments.  In today's case, there are no obvious scapegoats. That said, given the proximity of the next Fed announcement, "pre-Fed jitters" will likely be a popular guess.  Ultimately, between Thanksgiving and New Years, we're simply more likely to see random volatility without a clear root cause. Clear connections will be more likely over the next 2 days due to Tuesday's economic data and Wednesday's Fed announcement. 
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Mortgage Rates Could See More Volatility Next Week Fri, 05 Dec 2025 21:06:00 GMT
Average mortgage rates drifted slightly higher to end the week, though they remained under the levels seen on Monday and Tuesday. Even then, none of this week's movement was especially abrupt. That's interesting considering there was a decent amount of economic data throughout the week. It could be that the rate market is simply waiting for the heavier hitting events on the horizon. Next Tuesday's Job Openings data is on the watch list. It will be the first major October employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the same agency that publishes the big jobs report) since the end of the government shutdown. That's especially notable in this case because we won't ever get a full jobs report for October, and the portion that remains won't come out until the following week. Then on Wednesday, the The Fed will announce its rate decision. Markets are fairly convinced the Fed will cut rates, but the confidence isn't as iron-clad as normal. Additional surprises could arrive with the Fed's dot plot (updated rate forecasts from each Fed members) as well as Fed Chair Powell's press conference.  As always, keep in mind that a Fed rate cut has no bearing on longer-term rates like mortgages. It's actually been more common to see mortgage rates rise following Fed rate cuts.  
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Mortgage Rates Are Actually Higher This Week Thu, 04 Dec 2025 20:46:00 GMT
Today's mortgage rates a just a hair higher than yesterday's and although yesterday's rates were reasonably close to last Friday's, they were still definitely higher. That last assertion is at odds with some of the mortgage rate media coverage you may encounter today, but there's a logical reason. Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey every Thursday. It consists of an average of the rates from each of the previous 5 business days (Thursday through Wednesday). Thus, by the time it is reported, it is a fairly stale indication of rate movement if there's been any reasonable amount of volatility.  In the case of the current week, Monday and Tuesday saw rates move meaningfully higher from last week. Even after yesterday's recovery, the average lender is still slightly higher than any day last week apart from Monday.  As always, keep in mind that consistent daily coverage of mortgage rates mean that qualitative words like "higher and lower" may sound more serious than they are. For context, rates haven't drifted outside a 0.25% range for the past 3 months. Over the past 2 weeks, the range has been half that. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Back Down Near Recent Lows Wed, 03 Dec 2025 21:02:00 GMT
Mortgage rates improved more noticeably today, and while the average rate isn't quite as low as it was last week, it's fairly close.  Rates are based on movement in the bond market. Bonds were most likely to move in response to one or both of today's big economic reports.  Oddly enough, most of the bond market improvement was seen overnight, BEFORE the economic data came out. Nonetheless, the data definitely didn't hurt.
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Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower Tue, 02 Dec 2025 20:33:00 GMT
Unlike Monday, which saw a fairly brisk move toward higher rates, Tuesday barely budged. Additionally, the budging occurred in a friendly direction with the average lender offering rates that were just a hair lower than yesterday's.  Starting tomorrow morning, this week's potential volatility will be higher. Each day brings several economic reports  with the power to push rates higher or lower. Wednesday/tomorrow is probably chief among these due to the ADP employment report and a closely watched service sector report from ISM. 
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Mortgage Rates Erase Last Week's Gains Mon, 01 Dec 2025 20:34:00 GMT
Mortgage rates are based on bonds and the bond market is prone to erratic behavior on major holiday weeks. One of the more common patterns is for the holiday week to see a noticeable departure from a prevailing trend only to return to that trend in the following week.  That's exactly what we're seeing on the first day of the new week. The prevailing trend saw rates hold a narrow, sideways range with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate in the 6.3s.  Last week saw that average drop to 6.20% and now today, we're right back up to 6.31%. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] In the coming days, economic data should have a bigger impact on rates than the sort serendipity at work today.
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Mortgage Rates Unchanged Versus Wednesday Fri, 28 Nov 2025 17:55:00 GMT
As is most often the case, the Friday after Thanksgiving added nothing interesting to mortgage rate momentum.  The average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate is exactly where it was on Wednesday.  The underlying bond market closes early today, but will be fully open next week.  At that point, we're likely to see some volatility return for rates, depending on the results of economic reports. 
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Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher, But Remain Near Long-Term Lows Wed, 26 Nov 2025 19:52:00 GMT
Wednesday was far less eventful than the first two days of the week as far as mortgage rates were concerned. The average lender raised rates just a hair, but apart from yesterday, these are the lowest levels in a month and very close to the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Bond markets and mortgage lenders will be closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving. While Friday is technically open, 9 times out of 10, it may as well not be. In other words, the Friday after Thanksgiving rarely sees any meaningful movement in mortgage rates or the underlying bond market.  
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