Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Staying Steady to Close Out 2025 Wed, 31 Dec 2025 18:10:00 GMT
Although Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey (released today) suggested the lowest rates since October 2024, our daily numbers offer a bit more nuance. To be sure, October 28th and September 16th both saw distinctly lower rates this year.   Today's rates are right in line with yesterday's as well as last Friday's.  In other words, this week is flat compared to Friday although the average rate is lower so far. The bond market closes early today and will be fully closed tomorrow. Bonds reopen on Friday and then will be fully open for a normal week of trading next week. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Microscopically Higher Tue, 30 Dec 2025 20:11:00 GMT
Mortgage rates continue operating in an excruciatingly narrow range near their lowest levels of the past few years. Yesterday was the 6th best day of 2025. Today is tied for 7th place after rates moved 0.01% higher on average. While the underlying bond market is fully open today, it's a slow time of year in terms of volume and volatility. Bigger movement becomes more likely by the end of next week thanks to the return of important economic reports and stronger trader participation after holiday absences. 
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New 2-Month Lows, Just Barely Mon, 29 Dec 2025 20:31:00 GMT
With another holiday closure on deck and light calendar of events, the rate market is off to another uneventful start this week. In fact, the average lender barely budged from last Friday. But it was enough for MND's 30yr fixed rate index to tick down by 0.01%. This is the lowest level since October 28th--just barely edging out the lows seen on November 25th. There were only 5 days in November and one day in September with lower rates.  Before that, you'd have to go back to September 2024 to see anything lower. As always, there's never any way to know what's next for rates. The outcome of next week's economic data could certainly have a say in that. What we do know is that the present zone has been a recurring lower boundary for the range going all the way back to late 2022.
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Mortgage Rates Match 2-Month Lows Fri, 26 Dec 2025 20:00:00 GMT
Because mortgage rates are determined by the bond market, a boring market day typically translates to a boring mortgage rate day. But that's not entirely true today. While the level of movement is indeed very small, it only took a small movement to get the average 30yr fixed rate down to their lowest levels since the end of October.   Next week should be another slow one for rates, but things should pick up progressively as 2026 gets underway.
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Lowest Rates in Nearly a Month Wed, 24 Dec 2025 18:01:00 GMT
It was a short day for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates, but a good one. A side effect of holiday weeks and early market closures is a bit of random volatility without any obvious justification. When volume and participation are low, bonds can move a bit more than they otherwise might. All that to say today's improvement was luck of the draw, but we won't object to the result. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since November 25th. The caveat is that the range has been fairly narrow during that time. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Ultimately Unchanged After Starting Higher Tue, 23 Dec 2025 21:11:00 GMT
Mortgage rates have broadly been in a narrow holding pattern for the past 4 months and an even narrower range during December. Today will do nothing to change that with the average lender ending the day exactly where they left of yesterday. Earlier today, however, the average lender was offering slightly higher higher rates. The upward pressure came courtesy of the bond market's reaction to stronger GDP numbers for Q3. But that initial reaction proved to be a temporary overreaction, exacerbated by lighter trading participation associated with the holiday week.  In general, lower participation greases the skids for volatility, essentially magnifying the impact of events that might not have much of an impact otherwise. The bond market is technically open tomorrow (and thus, lenders will publish mortgage rates), but it should be even more heavily affected by holiday trading vibes.  Also, there isn't much in terms of important econ data to cause the kind of volatility seen today--no to mention the fact that today's volatility ultimately proved to be non-existent.
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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Start Holiday-Shortened Week Mon, 22 Dec 2025 20:21:00 GMT
Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday's levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower portion of the narrow range seen over the past 4 months.  If rates manage to move noticeably lower from here, they'll be challenging the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Meaningful momentum may be hard to come by over the next 2 weeks. During that time, the bond market will be fully closed for 2 days, partially closed on 2 days, and much lighter in volume and participation for the rest of the time. This can lead to random, small-scale volatility but it rarely results in lasting momentum. For that, we'll be waiting until the major econ data begins coming out in January--most notably the Jan 9th jobs report.
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Mortgage Rates Just Off 2-Week Lows Fri, 19 Dec 2025 21:09:00 GMT
It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates despite scattered speculation about the impact of foreign monetary policy decisions. The average lender nudged just a hair higher, resulting in the 2nd lowest reading of the week. Apart from yesterday, the last day with lower rates was more than 2 weeks ago on December 4th. The coming week will be heavily affected by the realities of the holiday trading environment. There's no repeatable formula for this. We simply widen the range of potential rate movement that occurs for no apparent reason. Most of the time, rates simple drift aimlessly sideways, but on certain years, there are  inexplicable jumps/dips. We won't have a solid sense of where the rate market wants to be until the important economic reports start coming out in January.
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Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels Since October Thu, 18 Dec 2025 20:44:00 GMT
Officially, there were 2 days at the end of November where the average lender's 30yr fixed rates were just a hair lower (0.02% difference).  Otherwise, today's rates would be the lowest since late October. The improvement follows this morning's release of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation was so far below expectations that it raised new questions about just how much the government shutdown impacted data collection. The market still treated it as good news for rates, but most of the improvement was already in place before the data came out. CPI marked the last of 2025's top tier economic reports when it comes to potential impacts on rates. This doesn't mean rates won't move between now and January--only that they're far less likely to make any big changes based on economic reports.
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Mortgage Rates Unchanged Ahead of Important Inflation Data Wed, 17 Dec 2025 20:51:00 GMT
Mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday's levels for the average lender. This wasn't a huge surprise considering the absence of any high stakes economic data, but tomorrow could be a different story. Rates are driven by bonds and the economy is one of the primary sources of motivation for the bond market. In general, the two reports that get more of the bond market's attention than any others are the jobs report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  The jobs report obviously pertains to the labor market. This is the report that came out yesterday and although it didn't cause a big move in rates, bond volume was nonetheless at its highest levels since the last jobs report on November 20th.  CPI pertains to inflation. Recent Fed speeches have expressed slightly more concern over inflation's impact on the rate outlook.  Longer term rates (like mortgages) also take cues from inflation. If CPI is higher than expected, it tends to put upward pressure on rates and vice versa. This will be the first CPI report since the government shutdown (the last report came out on 10/24/25) which makes it all the more likely that rates will react to any major departure from expectations.
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