Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Move Back Down Despite Stronger Data Wed, 04 Mar 2026 20:31:00 GMT
Economic data is one of the few consistent sources of motivation for interest rates in the mortgage world and beyond. In general, stronger data tends to push rates higher and vice versa. But in today's case, that correlation didn't pan out. The first of today's two important economic reports was ADP Employment. It was just barely stronger than expected, so it's no surprise that rates didn't react. The second report (ISM Services) was quite a bit stronger, with the headline index hitting its best levels since 2022.  On a vast majority of other occasions, such a result would create some clear upward pressure for rates. We can only speculate as to the absence of a reaction this time. Perhaps it was the component that tracks inflation falling to the lowest level in nearly a year. Perhaps the market is more preoccupied with geopolitical considerations.  Regardless of the reasons, we're not upset with the outcome. Rates moved about halfway back down to their recent lows after spending a few days at 2 week highs to start the week.
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Mortgage Rates Recover Moderately After Starting at 3-Week Highs Tue, 03 Mar 2026 20:21:00 GMT
After spending the entirety of last week calmy holding the lowest levels in more than 3 years, mortgage rates jumped sharply higher yesterday. That said, everything's relative. Even after that "sharp" increase, the average rate was still one of the lowest in years apart from last week. There was slightly more cause for concern this morning as the underlying bond market increasingly swooned.  When bonds lost ground, rates move higher.  But unlike yesterday, which involved pervasive gradual weakness throughout, today saw a meaningful recovery shortly after the market opened. Bonds ended up making it almost all the way back to 'unchanged,' thus allowing most lenders to reissue revised rates that were slightly lower than this morning. The average lender didn't make it quite back to yesterday's latest levels, but the market movement offered an important proof of concept. Specifically, we're not necessarily destined to see a runaway rate spike in the coming days. As always, there's an important caveat: we're not necessarily destined to see anything at all when it comes to the future of rate movement.  Depending on the outcome of economic data, rates could continue higher or recover back toward recent lows. Geopolitical developments can continue adding volatility for better or worse.  If there's one take away, it's simply that volatility risks are much more pronounced this week compared to the past 2 weeks. 
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Mortgage Rates Jump Back Into The 6's Mon, 02 Mar 2026 20:19:00 GMT
Mortgage rates began the new week with a fairly quick jump back into the low 6% range (top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender). With the news cycle very focused on developments in Iran, most coverage attempts to correlate geopolitical events with market movement. The only legitimate way to do this would be to say that upward pressure on oil prices is translating to higher inflation implications and therefore higher rates. At many times in the past, this would be a solid conclusion. To some small extent, a case could even be made for this correlation accounting for a portion of today's weakness. But most of the big, directional moves in oil prices over the past 2 days have failed to correlated with big moves in the bond market.  Even when we zoom out to wider frames of reference, we see counterintuitive developments over the past several years. When oil peaked around $120/bbl in 2022, 10yr Treasury yields were around 3%. When oil fell sharply into 2023, bond yields continued moving up and have held flat for the last few years even as oil gently declined. Nonetheless, there are also pockets of correlation where we can see the two lines moving in the same direction. The only problem with that is that oil and rates can both respond to a third variable: economic strength. On that note, this week's economic data may be just as big of an influence on rate momentum while geopolitical developments represent a wild card that can create a backdrop of volatility.
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Mortgage Rates End Week at Best Levels Fri, 27 Feb 2026 18:56:00 GMT
At this point, it is getting a bit repetitive to bring up "the lowest rates in more than 3 years"--something that was officially the case twice this week. If we give rates credit for stably holding these long-term lows (and we should!), then every day this week has been the best in more than 3 years. Here's the specific record: at no other time in the history of our rate index have rates begun a week at long-term lows and experienced so little volatility. There was a somewhat similar stretch of 4 days in March 2019, but rates had only hit a 2 year low at the time. On average, when rates hit the lowest levels in more than a year, the next 4 business days see a range of 0.07-0.08%. That makes this week's 0.01% range truly special.
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Best Week For Mortgage Rates in Years Thu, 26 Feb 2026 20:42:00 GMT
Given that we have the somewhat unpopular job of reporting that today's average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is 6.00 again, rather than the 5.99 seen earlier this week, we can at least find one glowingly positive development as a silver lining. In fact, the silver lining is more than a consolation prize. It's actually better news than another day at 5.99% would have been.  First off, there's no functional difference between 6.00 and 5.99 when it comes to our daily rate index. A vast majority (95%+) of borrowers would see the exact same rate quotes on either day. As such, it's far better news that the daily average has been 5.995 over the past 4 days (2 days at 6.00 and 2 at 5.99). That's easily the lowest weekly average in more than 3 years, and the stability means that more borrowers are able to hear that news and act accordingly.  NOTE: if you happen to see separate news today regarding rates hitting 5.98%, that would be coverage of Freddie Mac's weekly survey. You can use the chart below to explore long-term comparisons between our daily average, Freddie Mac, and MBA. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Mostly Holding Long-Term Lows Wed, 25 Feb 2026 20:37:00 GMT
It may not be as glamorous as being able to say mortgage rates are "in the 5s," but at 6.00%, today's MND rate index is a mere 0.01% higher than yesterday's multi-year low.  For all practical purposes, this means the average borrower will see almost exactly the same rates as yesterday.  In many cases, the quotes will be exactly the same.  There were no big ticket market movers on the econ calendar and no major headlines that caused any appreciable volatility in the bond market (bonds dictate mortgage rates).  In general, the entire week is very quiet in terms of those potential market movers. Rates would need to see a shift in important economic reports before committing to their next major move. 
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Mortgage Rates Match Multi-Year Low For 2nd Straight Day Tue, 24 Feb 2026 20:53:00 GMT
The average top-tier mortgage rates made it back to 5.99% yesterday for the first time since January 9th and only the second time in more than 3 years. With rates holding perfectly steady today, this is the 3rd day that matches that multi-year low. In one important way, the past 2 days represent a bigger victory for rates. Back on January 9th, the MND rate index only hit 5.99 for a few hours before bouncing. The next month and a half saw the average well into the low 6s. Contrast that to the current case where we've approached 5.99% more slowly and, thus far, are holding it much more steadily. All that having been said, there's never a guarantee that tomorrow's rates will be as low even if there aren't any economic reports that suggest a potentially volatile response. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Dip Back Into The 5's Mon, 23 Feb 2026 16:53:00 GMT
This coverage is coming out earlier than normal due to a more interesting headline than normal. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell back to 5.99% today, matching the levels seen only briefly back on January 9th, 2026 when the Fannie/Freddie bond buying plans were announced. Much like the last time, there's always a risk that something happens to prompt a bond market reversal today. If that happens, mortgage lenders could raise rates in the middle of the day.  But unlike last time, mortgage rates have eased down to current levels in a much more gradual and--dare we say--sustainable way. After all, today's improvement is only a moderate 0.05% vs Friday. Back on January 9th, the initial day-over-day jump was more than 0.20%. There's no new news causing the improvement. The broader bond market has gradually improved to the best levels since November and the mortgage-backed securities market (the bonds that directly dictate mortgage rates) have performed better than normal vs the broader market due to Fannie/Freddie purchases.  As always, keep in mind that 5.99% is a "top-tier" average among multiple lenders. This means that for a scenario with high FICO, high down payment and no other hits to pricing, various lenders will be quoting 5.875, 6.00, and 6.125% predominantly. Also keep in mind that many rates are quoted with different levels of upfront costs. There's no way to assess the strength of a rate quote without knowing the rest of those upfront costs.
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Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows Fri, 20 Feb 2026 20:18:00 GMT
Bonds dictate mortgage rates and bonds experienced a bit of volatility this morning in response to the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. The initial impact was negative for rates with Treasury yields moving higher and the prices for mortgage-backed securities moving lower. But the reaction was well-contained and bonds ended up erasing most of it by the afternoon. In addition, bonds had improved steadily yesterday, but not so quickly that mortgage lenders updated yesterday's rate offerings. As such, the average lender had a small cushion to work with today, and it was more than enough to offset this morning's bond market volatility. All that to say that the average lender actually moved a hair  lower.   The final number is in line with the lowest levels of the week--also the 2nd lowest level of the past 3 years behind January 9th (and not far behind at that). 
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Mortgage Rates Hold Flat on Thursday Despite Lower Weekly Average Thu, 19 Feb 2026 20:33:00 GMT
For the average lender, top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday. This keeps them right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years. That said, if we're splitting hairs, better rates were available 4 days in the past month and a half (Jan 9, Jan 12, Feb 13, Feb 17). So why is it that there are news headlines today claiming that rates hit their lowest levels in more than 3 years? Simply put, those stories are based on weekly survey data from Freddie Mac. Freddie isn't technically wrong, but you have to understand their methodology. Freddie's survey is an average of the rates available from last Thursday through yesterday. Indeed, if you use the numbers from our daily rate index on those days, the average is the lowest in 3 years, even if today's rates are a hair higher than several recent days.
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