Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Rose Less Than Expected After Employment Data Thu, 03 Jul 2025 18:56:00 GMT
Today brought the hotly anticipated jobs report.  This is the "official" job count and unemployment rate data for the U.S. and no other report has as much consistent power to cause volatility in the rate market.  Today's was particularly important because a perpetually decent labor market is the main justification for the Fed to wait and see if tariffs have an impact on inflation before proceeding with additional rate cuts. In other words, if unemployment were rising, the Fed would be cutting rates.  Not only did today's report show no rise in unemployment, there was actually a decline from 4.2 to 4.1%, falling well short of an expectation for an increase to 4.3%. In addition, the job count rose to 147k--a notable difference from the forecast consensus of 110k. With that, the underlying bond market surged toward higher yields.  When yields are surging higher, it implies upward pressure on mortgage rates, but the latter didn't take as much damage as the bond market suggested. The average lender was only slightly higher compared to yesterday, thus suggesting lenders were already getting in position for today's data earlier in the week. This isn't to say lenders knew what was going to happen. Rather, rates had fallen to the lowest levels in several months as of Monday. Lenders could have dropped them even more, but with important data on the way and an extended holiday weekend ahead, they left themselves a bit of a cushion. That cushion helped absorb most of today's bond market movement without the need for big mortgage rate changes.
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Rates Finally Rise Ahead of Jobs Report Wed, 02 Jul 2025 18:53:00 GMT
Mortgage rates have generally been falling since May 21st and have done nothing but move lower for more than 2 weeks.  That winning streak finally came to an end today with the average lender moving up 0.06% for a top tier 30yr fixed quote. While that's a moderately big jump for a single day, if we remove the past 4 days from the equation, today's rates would still be the lowest since early April.  In other words, we're still in solid shape in the bigger picture. Additionally, we've increasingly expected rates to bounce as the recent winning streak persisted. As of yesterday, it was up to 11 days and the odds of a bounce rise sharply after about 5-8 days.  Last but not least, it's also not uncommon for rates to "circle the wagons," so to speak, if they're in the midst of a sustained trend on the eve of a critical market event. Tomorrow's jobs report classifies as such an event.  Along with the Inflation data coming out on July 15th, this data has the potential to firmly support or reject the notion that the Fed could cut rates as early as this month. While we often go out of our way to remind our audience that the Fed Funds Rate doesn't dictate mortgage rates, a lot of that has to do with timing.  Changes in Fed Funds Rate expectations almost always correlate quite well with mortgage rate movement, and this data could absolutely change those expectations. As with any big ticket economic report, there's no way to know how it will fare versus the consensus ahead of time because that consensus constantly adjusts for all available info. In other words, if other reports suggest a weaker labor market, forecasters will update their forecasts and traders will take a lead-off in the corresponding direction.  Bottom line: all we can know is that potential volatility is high tomorrow (Thursday) morning, for better or worse. 
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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at 3 Month Lows Tue, 01 Jul 2025 19:09:00 GMT
It's been 88 days since the average 30yr fixed mortgage rate was as low as it is today--close enough to 3 months.  Some lenders may be higher or lower than they were yesterday depending on whether or not changed rates yesterday afternoon. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day, but can "reprice" if the underlying bond market moves enough in one direction or the other. Bonds improved enough yesterday afternoon for many lenders to offer slightly lower rates.  Those lenders are a hair higher today, generally.   In terms of the underlying bond market, things are just a bit better right now compared to yesterday morning and just a bit worse compared to yesterday afternoon. That deterioration mainly followed this morning's job openings data which showed another increase from the longer-term lows seen 2 months ago. Rates typically move higher if job openings are higher than expected, all else equal. But today's data-driven volatility is nothing compared to what could be seen on Thursday morning following the big jobs report (officially, the "Employment Situation" which offers a count of jobs created in June as well as an update to the unemployment rate). 
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Mortgage Rates Take Another Step Toward April Lows Mon, 30 Jun 2025 19:28:00 GMT
April 3rd and 4th saw the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates well into the "mid 6's."  Many lenders were able to quote 6.5% at the time.  Just a few days ago, we noted there was still a ways to go before breaking below those early April levels, but the past few days have taken us within striking distance.  The average lender is now only 0.07% higher than they were on April 4th and that's a gap that can be traversed in as little as one day under the right circumstances. If it is destined to be traversed in the near feature, it would likely be due to exceptional weakness in the forthcoming economic data--especially Thursday's big jobs report.  Conversely, if this week's economic data surprises to the upside, it would likely coincide with rates bouncing here and headline back into the recent range. And lastly, if this week's data doesn't cast a decisive vote in either direction, next week's inflation reports could easily break the tie. The most interesting aspect of today's movement was the movement itself.  It didn't happen due to any interesting data or news headlines.  Both stocks and bonds (which dictate rates) improved as traders moved portfolios into position for the end of the month/quarter.  This can cause market movement independent of economic data/news. 
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Mortgage Rates Not Too Far From 8 Month Lows Fri, 27 Jun 2025 17:16:00 GMT
Friday's mortgage rates ended up being right in line with Thursday's on average.  At 6.72%, the MND daily rate index is as low as it's been since early April when it hit 6.60%. If you're thinking that 6.72 doesn't sound much higher than 6.60, you're right!  Mortgage lenders tend to offer rates in 0.125% increments, so we're really only one notch away from those lows.  After that, we'd need to go all the way back to October to see anything lower. While the mortgage market can languish sideways for weeks without moving outside a 0.12 range, there are also more than a few examples of that much movement in a single day, provided the news is sufficiently inspiring. The catch is that the movement could occur in either direction.  In a general sense, the recent improvement has been a byproduct of slightly softer economic data and inflation. There are key reports that speak to those metrics over the next two weeks.  Rates have more room to fall if the data shows a continued softening, but could spike abruptly if employment surges or tariff-driven inflation actually materializes. 
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Mortgage Rate Winning Streak Continues Thu, 26 Jun 2025 19:02:00 GMT
After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one.  This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fixed index moving down almost 0.25% through this afternoon. Today's gains contributed nicely with a drop of 0.07%. Normally, we'd point to the economic release calendar to help explain this sort of momentum.  There were numerous reports out this morning and several of them could be viewed as helpful for rates.  But when rates move lower in response to economic data, we tend to see at least some semblance of weakness in the stock market--even if only briefly--and that was nowhere to be found.  The implication is that the market is broadly shifting to expect a lower path for the Fed Funds Rate (something that would help both rates and stocks).  It's always good to remember that the greater number of days in a mortgage rate winning streak, the greater the odds of a bounce.  Sometimes that only means a single day moving modestly higher.  Other times, the rate market hits a short term floor and moves back up into its recent range for a while. There is absolutely no way to know which sort of bounce the next one will be, only that it grows slightly more likely with each passing day of victory.  Note: our winning streak is at 5 days currently, and we don't tend to call attention to these risks until we hit 8 days.  Some of the longest streaks go more than 10 days.
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Lowest Rates in Over 2 Months Wed, 25 Jun 2025 19:21:00 GMT
The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate had already dipped to the lowest levels since May 1st at the start of the week.  Two additional days of modest improvement brings us to the lowest levels since April 4th as of today.   April 4th is probably a day that's worth remembering.  If rates take out that particular floor, it would signify some more serious momentum toward lower borrowing costs.  Reason being: April 4th's MND rate index was 6.6%--almost 0.20% lower than today's 6.79%.   Rates jumped abruptly after April 4th as the bond market reacted to a sharply stronger jobs report. They continued higher the following week after the tariff "pause."  Today's improvement is really more a reflection of yesterday afternoon's bond market strength.  As a reminder, lenders prefer to change their rates as infrequently as possible after setting them initially in the morning. If the bond market moves enough, they will issue mid day "reprices." Many lenders did so in response to yesterday's bond market gains, but in those scenarios, there tends to be a bit more left on the table. If the bond market holds reasonably steady overnight (as it did today), lenders can then pass along the additional improvement.
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Mortgage Rates Lowest Since April Tue, 24 Jun 2025 18:37:00 GMT
Yesterday saw mortgage rates fall to the best levels since early May.  Now, today, we'd have to go all the way back to the end of April to find anything lower.  Are the changes massive? Not by a long shot, but it sounds/looks that much better hear/read. This wasn't destined to be the case today.  The underlying bond market actually began the day in a stance that would have kept rates sideways or just a hair  higher.   But after the morning's economic data and Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony, bonds improved and the average mortgage lender was able to offer a mid day reprice. The data that mattered was the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index.  Specifically, a closely watched component of that index, the labor differential (a measurement of consumers who day jobs are plentiful versus those who say jobs are hard to get), pointed to the weakest labor market conditions since the easing of initial covid lockdowns. At the same time, Fed Chair Powell began answering questions before the House Financial Services Committee.  He struck a slightly softer tone on potential rate cuts today compared to the press conference at last week's Fed meeting and the bond market reacted accordingly. In general, when bonds improve enough during the day, mortgage lenders are increasingly able to execute a mid-day price change. 
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Mortgage Rates Lowest Since May 1st Mon, 23 Jun 2025 19:12:00 GMT
Mortgage rates ended the previous week roughly in line with the best levels since May 1st.  Today's modest improvement made it official.  Mortgage rates are primarily a function of trading levels in the bond market and bonds have had a few reasons to move at the start of the new week. There's a small case to be made that U.S. involvement in the conflict between Israel and Iran contributed to bond market strength and, thus, lower mortgage rates today.  Less debatable is the fact that Fed Vice Chair Bowman commented on the possibility of cutting rates at the July meeting. This echoes sentiments shared by Fed's Waller last week.  Unlike actual rate cuts (which often do little or nothing to help mortgage rates by the time they happen), changes in rate cut  expectations can impact longer-term rates in real time. In other words, by the time the Fed actually meets and cuts rates, the market has already had plenty of time to get in position for that due to comments from Fed speakers and economic data.
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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady Fri, 20 Jun 2025 17:07:00 GMT
With Thursday being a federal holiday, banks (and more importantly, the underlying market for mortgage related bonds) were closed.  This means that lenders were not able to update mortgage rates.  It turns out that it wouldn't have mattered either way as the average lender has barely budged from Wednesday's levels.  But let's not miss an opportunity to deliver news that's technically good even if only just.  Over the past 3 business days, average rates have fallen 0.05%.  This keeps us close to the lowest levels seen since April 4th with top tier 30yr fixed scenarios at 6.86 on the MND daily rate index. Given some of the news headlines this week, it bears repeating that this week's Fed announcement has nothing to do with rates holding steady.  In fact, even if the Fed had cut rates (which was not seen as even a remote possibility by financial markets), mortgage rates could just as easily have moved higher.  
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