Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Move Back Above 6.5% Fri, 20 Mar 2026 18:53:00 GMT
After hitting 5.99% as recently as February 27th, top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates are back over 6.5% for the average lender today--the highest they've been since September 3rd, 2025.  The entire month of March has been painful for many corners of the financial market and mortgage rates are not immune. The Iran war is the underlying catalyst as surging fuel costs force global central banks to rapidly reassess inflation expectations and the policy rate outlook. As we're fond of repeating, an actual hike/cut of the Fed Funds Rate is of no concern to mortgage rates by the time it actually happens. But if Fed hike/cut  expectations are changing rapidly, mortgage rates will almost always be changing rapidly in the same direction.  That's what's happening this week--not just for the Fed, but also for the European Central Bank and others. The globally-coordinated hawkishness on the rate outlook causes additional volatility in the rate market for a variety of reasons. Investors increasingly believe that there is additional pain that needs to play out even if the war were to end today. That doesn't mean rates can't bounce for a day or two, but it does mean sustained improvement back to February's levels is highly unlikely in the near term.
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Mortgage Rates Jump Back Up to 7-Month Highs Thu, 19 Mar 2026 18:44:01 GMT
Mortgage rates hit 7-month highs last Friday, but recovered fairly nicely on the first two days of the present week. The past 2 days have been a bit rough, unfortunately. Over that time, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate rose 0.14% to 6.43%--just a bit higher than last Friday's 6.41%. Whereas mortgage rate volatility on many recent days have been a function of oil price volatility, the past two days have had more to do with the market's reaction to central bank policy communications. Yesterday, that involved the Federal Reserve's post-announcement press conference. Today is was the European Central Bank (ECB).  While it may not be the first motivation most people think of when it comes to interest rates, foreign central banks can cause volatility across the globe and today was one of those days. Unfortunately, it was unfriendly volatility--especially earlier in the morning. With no big-ticket data or central bank events on tap for tomorrow, geopolitical risk stands a better chance to return to the driver's seat for rate volatility. 
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Mortgage Rates Move Back Up Near Recent Highs Wed, 18 Mar 2026 21:06:00 GMT
Mortgage rates got hit 3 times on Wednesday, with the net effect being a move back up to the highest levels in several months. The average lender isn't quite as high as they were last Friday, but after late-day "reprices" many are fairly close.  The least of the bond market's concerns (bonds dictate rates) was this morning's inflation data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was higher than expected on multiple fronts, including those that translate directly to higher consumer prices in the more robust PCE inflation data that comes out on April 9th. Higher inflation = higher rates, all else equal.  Inflation also figured into the morning's other development: a renewed surge in oil prices. Granted, it's not as big as some of the recent spikes, but as crude jumped roughly $6 per barrel, bond yields followed with a strong correlation. The 3rd market mover was also inflation-related, but this time in the form of Fed comments. Fed Chair Powell's characterization of inflation progress left the market feeling hopeless regarding potential rate cuts any time soon. As always, it is the market's rate cut expectations that actually correlate with interest rate movement (whereas actual Fed rate cuts are old news by the time they happen).  Today's post-Fed press conference resulted in financial markets moving expectations for the next rate cut out to April of 2027. A day ago, the market saw no chance of a rate HIKE at the next Fed meeting. Today, it's nearly 5% (not high, but a notable shift nonetheless).
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The Fed Isn't Doing Anything to Mortgage Rates on Wednesday Tue, 17 Mar 2026 19:07:00 GMT
It was a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates, but also a fairly decent one. The underlying bond market made modest gains even without meaningful cues from oil prices. Lately, oil price volatility has been the most visible motivation for bonds and, thus, interest rates. After cresting 6.40% last week, the MND 30yr fixed rate index is back below 6.30% today, albeit just barely (6.29% for top tier 30yr fixed rates at the average lender). Looking ahead, tomorrow afternoon brings the latest Fed announcement. The market has conclusively decided there will be no rate cut. Even if the opposite were true, there would be no implication for mortgage rates (because the Fed doesn't dictate mortgage rates). Nonetheless, Fed days can still cause volatility in rates, for better or worse. In tomorrow's case, any impact from the Fed should be smaller than it otherwise would have been due to the market's preoccupation with geopolitical influences.
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Mortgage Rates Recover Modestly From 7-Month Highs Mon, 16 Mar 2026 18:51:00 GMT
Mortgage rates are based on bonds, and bonds spent last week bracing for the impact of higher energy prices. In the bond world, higher inflation begets higher rates, all else equal.  Oil prices remain elevated, but fell more than 5% on Monday. The bond market responded with a drop in Treasury yields (which generally correlate with mortgage rates). Both the 10yr Treasury yield and the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate fell 0.06% on the day. That means mortgages are now at the highest levels in only 3 months after being at 7-month highs on Friday afternoon.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Surge to 7-Month Highs Fri, 13 Mar 2026 18:12:00 GMT
March hasn't been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% today--the highest since September 4th, 2025.  While that's certainly not the fastest jump we've seen, it's the worst 3-day stretch since early April, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven primarily by movement in the bond market. Like several other asset classes, bonds have not been happy about the Iran war. This is counterintuitive for those who expect bonds to serve as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, but when war has a direct impact on inflation expectations, it's more than enough to offset any of the safe haven benefit that might otherwise be seen. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Spike to 2026 Highs Thu, 12 Mar 2026 19:55:00 GMT
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market. Although bonds only experienced moderate, steady weakness throughout the day, mortgage rates lurched higher by an amount typically seen when the market is reacting to big, breaking news.  But there wasn't any of that sort of news on tap today--just downbeat updates that reinforced a longer timeline for geopolitical disruptions. The bigger issue for mortgage rates is that they often experience heightened volatility when they pass through the 6.25% level. Due to the underlying structure of the mortgage market, 6.25% is sort of a dead zone. If you really want to see the nuts and bolts behind that phenomenon, here's the primer. The practical result is that movement tends to be bigger when rates are rising or falling through 6.25% (or any level that ends with 0.25 or 0.75). As such, when rates began moving up from 6.125%, the slightly elevated bond market volatility made for a faster trip up to the 6.375% zone (today's MND index was revised up to 6.35% in the afternoon after ending Monday at 6.14%). This is the highest level since December 8th, 2025, though it should be noted that prior to September 2025, rates had been much higher, on average, for roughly an entire year. 
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Highest Rates in More Than a Month Wed, 11 Mar 2026 20:13:00 GMT
Mortgage rates moved higher on Wednesday despite only a modest increase in oil prices. The latter is currently a part of any conversation about interest rates as higher energy costs have fueled inflation expectations. Higher inflation begets higher rates, all else equal. But rates take other cues, or course. One key consideration is that of "supply." In other words, how many new dollars of debt are being issued--not just by the U.S. government, but across the entire bond market.  At present, government issuance is high and only expected to get higher. Even though congressional approval is ultimately required, armed conflict can increase expectations for future military spending. There's also uncertainty over tariff refunds which would further increase the supply of U.S. Treasuries to offset the lost revenue. Last but not least, this week brings scheduled Treasury auctions. The market knew about these ahead of time, but on some auction weeks, the results reveal an imbalance between buyers and sellers that increases momentum toward higher or lower interest rates. This week, that momentum has been generally higher. The net effect on mortgage rates is a conventional top-tier 30yr fixed that is back to February 4th levels on average. 
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Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower Tue, 10 Mar 2026 19:38:00 GMT
Today's mortgage rates are lower when compared to yesterday's average prior to 4pm ET. Later in the afternoon, multiple lenders announced improvements as the bond market rallied in response to geopolitical headlines. If we use those later, lower rates as a baseline, today's average is roughly unchanged. There were no major economic reports today--not that bonds have been too keen on reacting to econ data anyway. War-related headlines remain the biggest risk for potential volatility despite historically significant econ data on tap in the coming days. 
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Mortgage Rates Finish Flat After Starting Higher Mon, 09 Mar 2026 18:24:00 GMT
Mortgage rates began the day at the highest levels in a month. The move up versus Friday was only moderate, but Friday's levels were already fairly close to early Feb's highs. Oil prices continue putting upward pressure on rates, but with several caveats. It takes quite a big move in oil to motivate enough movement in the bond market to impact mortgage rates. With this morning's spike being the largest on record at the time, today certainly qualified. But over the course of the day, both oil and bonds reversed course, thus allowing the average lender to adjust rates back in line with Friday's latest levels. 
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