Mortgage Rate Watch
Another Micro-Victory For Mortgage Rates Thu, 22 Jan 2026 20:40:00 GMT
Mortgage rates may not be as low as they were before the weekend's geopolitical headlines, but they've moved just a hair lower on each of the past two days. Specifically, our daily rate index is down to 6.19% after starting the week at 6.21% on Tuesday (up from 6.07% last Friday). While there was a large glut of seemingly important economic data today, it didn't have a noticeable impact on the bond market. Part of the reason is that the data in question is very stale at this point.  The most recent monthly data covered November and the GDP release was for Q3 (July-Sep). Timeliness aside, the data was also very close to forecasts. There's even less on the calendar tomorrow, but markets remain susceptible to geopolitical risk and any headlines that speak to the fiscal outlook (tariffs, spending, etc). 
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Mortgage Rates Sideways to Slightly Lower Wed, 21 Jan 2026 20:09:00 GMT
Markets held more sideways overnight as traders awaited further geopolitical developments today surrounding Greenland. Both stocks and bonds lost ground yesterday on the threat of additional tariffs (and counter-tariffs) as well as decreased participation in the US bond market from foreign wealth funds.  When bonds lose ground, rates move higher.  Bond market improvement was tentative earlier in the day but more noticeable in the afternoon when Trump announced "the framework of a deal" just after 2:30pm ET.  Both stocks and bonds rallied on the news. Up until that point, mortgage rates were holding right in line with yesterday's latest levels, but some lenders are offering mid-day improvements this afternoon.
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Mortgage Rates Jump to Match Highest Levels in Nearly a Month Tue, 20 Jan 2026 20:28:00 GMT
Mortgage rates jumped sharply higher on Tuesday in response to weakness driven by geopolitical events and overseas financial markets. After hitting lows of 5.99% for a few hours on January 9th and spending last week in the low 6's, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is back up to 6.21% today.  This matches the level seen the day before the announcement of the administration's $200 bln mortgage bond buying plans. The last time rates were higher was December 23rd.  In light of that announcement, why aren't mortgage rates doing better?  Simply put, the market has already reacted to that news to the extent allowed by its transparency. If it were something like the Fed's bond buying initiatives in the past (Q.E. or "quantitative easing," which involved a detailed buying schedule laid out well in advance), it would be easier for rates to drop much more quickly.   As it stands, the market will learn about this new buying plan as it plays out. In practice, this means that there will be certain days where mortgage rates do better than US Treasuries.  And then there will be regular days like today, when both are hurting in roughly equal measure.  As always, there's no way to know if today is a sign of additional momentum toward higher rates. It likely depends on the outcome of present geopolitical issues and upcoming economic data.
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Mortgage Rates End Week at Highs Fri, 16 Jan 2026 21:06:00 GMT
Don't stress out. If we ignore the past 5 days, today's mortgage rates are still the lowest since early 2023.  That said, they're up a bit from last week and they moved moderately higher day-over-day. Last week's news regarding Fannie and Freddie's plans to buy $200 bln of MBS (the mortgage-backed securities that directly dictate mortgage rates) made for a rapid drop in the average mortgage rate, but that had largely run its course by Monday. Since then, the market has been finding its range. Mortgages have also been contending with countervailing forces in the broader bond market. Specifically, Treasury yields and Fed rate expectations have been rising. Just today, the 10yr yield finally broke up and out of a range that has held firm for more than 4 months. Mortgage rates have been insulated from that negative momentum in Treasuries (something that would normally imply an equal amount of negativity in the mortgage world) thanks to Fannie/Freddie MBS purchases. 
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Mortgage Rates Higher For Some Lenders and Lower For Others Thu, 15 Jan 2026 20:25:00 GMT
Mortgage rates moved modestly lower for the average lender today, but higher for others. The distinction is whether the lender in question made a late-day adjustment yesterday afternoon.  At the time, the underlying market for mortgage bonds was improving somewhat sharply. This prompted several lenders to drop rates before the end of business. Those lenders had to bump rates back up this morning as the bond market was in weaker territory this morning.  Other lenders--those who didn't make any changes yesterday afternoon--were able to nudge rates modestly lower today as this morning's bond market levels were a bit better than yesterday morning's.  In the bigger picture, the average lender is still very close to 3-year lows. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Unchanged Despite Bond Market Improvement Wed, 14 Jan 2026 20:27:00 GMT
Trading levels in the bond market directly impact the rates that mortgage lenders can offer. This is why rates moved so much lower after last week's news regarding planned purchases of $200bln in mortgage backed bonds.  But bonds aren't the only input for rates, and those other inputs can make for days like today where bonds are noticeably better while mortgage rates refuse to follow. Those other inputs aren't as easy to observe and quantify as the objective trading levels in the bond market, but in the current case, we can assume that at least some of the explanation has to do with mortgage lenders quickly becoming too busy to handle more volume. "Busy" isn't necessarily the right word, but in this case, it's a catch-all term for the side effects of rapidly originating a much higher volume of new loans. One aspect has to do with the flow of funding. Lenders don't have unlimited cash to accept new lock commitments.  As they approach those limits, they will raise rates (or not lower them as much as their peers) to deter new business. A slightly more esoteric aspect has to do with deterring borrowers who recently acquired new mortgages from refinancing. Early payoffs (which mostly occur via refinancing when rates unexpectedly fall) cost lenders money because, on average, lenders pay more than the principal amount to originate a loan.  They then rely on earning interest to offset that expense. An early payoff means they won't be able to collect that interest. As such, they have an incentive to avoid setting rates at low enough levels to entice recently minted mortgages from refi'ing. 
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Mortgage Rates Now Solidly Back Above 6% Tue, 13 Jan 2026 20:25:00 GMT
According to our chart of MND's mortgage rate index, 30yr fixed rates bottomed at 6.01% yesterday, but that's because the chart logs the day's latest entry.  On Friday, until late in the day, the chart showed a rate of 5.99%. It was only after several lenders raised rates in the afternoon that the index moved up to 6.06%. Today's rates ended up just a hair higher than that at 6.07%. Most of the underlying market weakness that accounts for today's jump occurred yesterday afternoon. Lenders who raised rates yesterday afternoon offered roughly comparable rates this morning.  Things might have ended up worse today had it not been for a reasonably well-received CPI report (Consumer Price Index). This important data showed inflation remaining in check in December, with the most closely-watched metrics coming in just below the median forecast.  Lower inflation is good for rates, all else equal, but inflation isn't falling fast enough to have a big impact in the short term. In today's case, it did more to help the bond market avoid losing ground than it did to spark a new rally. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Inch Higher From 3 Year Lows Mon, 12 Jan 2026 20:44:00 GMT
Mortgage rates are either higher or lower today, depending on the lender in question. Some lenders raised rates on Friday afternoon in response to weakness in the bond market (lenders set rates based on the trading levels of MBS, the bonds that underlie the mortgage market). Those lenders are actually slightly lower today. Lenders who didn't raise rates on Friday afternoon are slightly higher today. In all cases, apart from Friday morning, today's rates remain well below anything seen for nearly 3 years. This is notable considering 10yr are near 4 month highs and more than 0.20% higher than the lower end of the range during that time. One reason for mortgage rates outperforming the 10yr Treasury is the fact that the 10yr isn't always the best indicator for mortgages. In recent years, a 5yr Treasury has behaved more like mortgage rates in terms of day to day movement.  An even bigger reason for mortgage outperformance is last week's announcement regarding Fannie/Freddie purchases of MBS.  This is the news that sent rates surging lower on Friday.  The market is continuing to hone in on a new trading range for MBS today, but the bulk of the initial volatility seems to have passed.
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Rates Plummet to 3 Year Lows, But There Are Caveats Fri, 09 Jan 2026 18:56:00 GMT
On a week where the mortgage market was most likely to experience volatility due to Friday's jobs report, Thursday afternoon's surprise announcement of $200bln in GSE MBS (mortgage-backed securities) buying stole the show. This was already juicing the underlying MBS market yesterday afternoon, but traders took the surge to the next level this morning. This matters because MBS dictate mortgage rates.  When MBS are rising/improving/surging/etc., it implies lower rates. MBS had improved so much this morning that the average lender released their best rate sheet since Feb 2, 2023--the lowest level since September 2022.   The caveat is that MBS experienced significant volatility throughout the day and that volatility is likely to continue. As of this afternoon, at least one lender has already bumped rates back up a bit.  If more lenders follow suit, the end of day average rate could move up, but it would still likely be the lowest in at least a year.  Bottom line: the market didn't have much of a reaction at all to the jobs report. The MBS market continues sorting out a huge reaction to the GSE purchase news. Rates are definitely quite a bit lower. It remains to be seen how much lower they'll be when the initial volatility settles down--something that will probably require more clarity on the specifics of the MBS buying plan.
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Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher on Thursday. Friday's Risks Are Bigger Thu, 08 Jan 2026 21:05:00 GMT
Mortgage rates were just a hair higher for the average lender on Thursday. The underlying bond market lost some ground following a stronger weekly Jobless Claims report and in sympathy with global bond market weakness overnight.  Because rates are based on bonds, when bonds are weaker, rates move higher. There are many different economic reports that deal with the jobs market, but none more important than the Employment Situation released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics--the one typically referred to simply as "the jobs report."  This month's jobs report will be released at 8:30am ET on Friday morning. Mortgage lenders don't set their rates for the day until the 9am hour at the earliest, and that's plenty of time for the data to send the bond market on a wild ride. If the jobs report is stronger than expected, rates will likely be higher, and vice versa. One final note: any economic report with high volatility potential can also have a limited impact. It all depends on how the data comes in. All we can know ahead of time is that the range of potential movement in rates is higher after reports like this.  
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