Mortgage Rate Watch
Lowest Rates in Nearly a Month Wed, 24 Dec 2025 18:01:00 GMT
It was a short day for the bond market that underlies mortgage rates, but a good one. A side effect of holiday weeks and early market closures is a bit of random volatility without any obvious justification. When volume and participation are low, bonds can move a bit more than they otherwise might. All that to say today's improvement was luck of the draw, but we won't object to the result. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell to the lowest level since November 25th. The caveat is that the range has been fairly narrow during that time. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Ultimately Unchanged After Starting Higher Tue, 23 Dec 2025 21:11:00 GMT
Mortgage rates have broadly been in a narrow holding pattern for the past 4 months and an even narrower range during December. Today will do nothing to change that with the average lender ending the day exactly where they left of yesterday. Earlier today, however, the average lender was offering slightly higher higher rates. The upward pressure came courtesy of the bond market's reaction to stronger GDP numbers for Q3. But that initial reaction proved to be a temporary overreaction, exacerbated by lighter trading participation associated with the holiday week.  In general, lower participation greases the skids for volatility, essentially magnifying the impact of events that might not have much of an impact otherwise. The bond market is technically open tomorrow (and thus, lenders will publish mortgage rates), but it should be even more heavily affected by holiday trading vibes.  Also, there isn't much in terms of important econ data to cause the kind of volatility seen today--no to mention the fact that today's volatility ultimately proved to be non-existent.
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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Start Holiday-Shortened Week Mon, 22 Dec 2025 20:21:00 GMT
Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday's levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower portion of the narrow range seen over the past 4 months.  If rates manage to move noticeably lower from here, they'll be challenging the lowest levels in more than 3 years. Meaningful momentum may be hard to come by over the next 2 weeks. During that time, the bond market will be fully closed for 2 days, partially closed on 2 days, and much lighter in volume and participation for the rest of the time. This can lead to random, small-scale volatility but it rarely results in lasting momentum. For that, we'll be waiting until the major econ data begins coming out in January--most notably the Jan 9th jobs report.
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Mortgage Rates Just Off 2-Week Lows Fri, 19 Dec 2025 21:09:00 GMT
It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates despite scattered speculation about the impact of foreign monetary policy decisions. The average lender nudged just a hair higher, resulting in the 2nd lowest reading of the week. Apart from yesterday, the last day with lower rates was more than 2 weeks ago on December 4th. The coming week will be heavily affected by the realities of the holiday trading environment. There's no repeatable formula for this. We simply widen the range of potential rate movement that occurs for no apparent reason. Most of the time, rates simple drift aimlessly sideways, but on certain years, there are  inexplicable jumps/dips. We won't have a solid sense of where the rate market wants to be until the important economic reports start coming out in January.
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Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels Since October Thu, 18 Dec 2025 20:44:00 GMT
Officially, there were 2 days at the end of November where the average lender's 30yr fixed rates were just a hair lower (0.02% difference).  Otherwise, today's rates would be the lowest since late October. The improvement follows this morning's release of November's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation was so far below expectations that it raised new questions about just how much the government shutdown impacted data collection. The market still treated it as good news for rates, but most of the improvement was already in place before the data came out. CPI marked the last of 2025's top tier economic reports when it comes to potential impacts on rates. This doesn't mean rates won't move between now and January--only that they're far less likely to make any big changes based on economic reports.
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Mortgage Rates Unchanged Ahead of Important Inflation Data Wed, 17 Dec 2025 20:51:00 GMT
Mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday's levels for the average lender. This wasn't a huge surprise considering the absence of any high stakes economic data, but tomorrow could be a different story. Rates are driven by bonds and the economy is one of the primary sources of motivation for the bond market. In general, the two reports that get more of the bond market's attention than any others are the jobs report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI).  The jobs report obviously pertains to the labor market. This is the report that came out yesterday and although it didn't cause a big move in rates, bond volume was nonetheless at its highest levels since the last jobs report on November 20th.  CPI pertains to inflation. Recent Fed speeches have expressed slightly more concern over inflation's impact on the rate outlook.  Longer term rates (like mortgages) also take cues from inflation. If CPI is higher than expected, it tends to put upward pressure on rates and vice versa. This will be the first CPI report since the government shutdown (the last report came out on 10/24/25) which makes it all the more likely that rates will react to any major departure from expectations.
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Mortgage Rates Only Slightly Lower, But Volatility Risks Remain Tue, 16 Dec 2025 19:08:00 GMT
There was a decent chance that rates would have made a fairly big move today in response to the release of November's jobs report. This is the most important economic data as far as rates are concerned and today's was the first full release since before the government shutdown. In general, weaker employment data promotes lower rates and vice versa. While today's jobs report was weaker on balance, it wasn't weak enough to unequivocally shift the narrative of a labor market that is merely cooling in a gradual and manageable way. The average lender moved back down to levels that were close to those seen last Thursday. In the bigger picture, rates are in a consolidation pattern inside the same relatively narrow range seen since early September. Volatility remains a risk as the week progresses. If there's one additional report the market may be waiting to see before trading today's jobs report more aggressively, it's this Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is the heaviest hitting monthly inflation report and inflation is the other half of the Fed's rate-setting equation.
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Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower as Volatility Risks Increase Mon, 15 Dec 2025 19:41:00 GMT
Mortgage rates were just slightly lower to start the new week. This leaves the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate almost dead center in the narrow range that's been intact since early September. The absence of any significant movement on Monday is a logical outcome given the absence of any major economic data releases or headlines. But Tuesday could be a different story. At 8:30am ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the first jobs report with data collected after the government shutdown. This report normally would have come out on December 5th, but by the time the government reopened on Nov 13th, BLS had missed much of its normal data collection/processing window. The jobs report (officially, The Employment Situation) is the single most important piece of economic data as far as interest rates are concerned. It includes 2 key metrics: a count of new nonfarm payroll (NFP) creation as well as an update on the unemployment rate. Both are important, but the unemployment rate has recently taken precedence over NFP. If unemployment comes in lower than expected, rates would likely face upward pressure, potentially challenging the upper boundary of the recent range. On the other hand, a weaker/higher result should keep rates well within the range, perhaps near the lower boundary. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Anyone Who Tells You They Know What Happens Next For Rates is Lying Fri, 12 Dec 2025 21:18:00 GMT
Friday saw mortgage rates move back up near the highest levels of the week, and thus the highest levels of the past 3 months. Thus ends another week where mortgage rates end higher despite a Fed rate cut. We've beaten this horse to death, but here are the two key reasons Fed rate cuts don't necessarily result in lower mortgage rates, in as few words as possible:  Different Kinds of Rates Fed Funds Rate = loans of 24 hours or less.  Mortgage rates = loans up to 30 years.  Rates can have vastly different behavior when they apply to loans of vastly different time frames Vastly different levels of timeliness Fed only meets to consider rate cuts 8 times a year whereas mortgage rates move daily.  As such, mortgage rates can get in position well in advance of the Fed actually cutting. All told, this week's Fed announcement had only a small, temporary impact on financial markets, and it was completely reversed on Friday. In contrast, the upcoming week actually has significant new market movers. These include Retail Sales for October, CPI inflation data for November, and the much-anticipated November jobs report (as well as half of the October jobs report). Unlike the Fed rate cut, markets can't accurately predict how these reports will come out. If they're mostly stronger than expected, rates will break up and out of their recent range. If the reports are weaker, rates should retreat back down into that same range.
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Mortgage Rates Hit Lowest Levels of The Week Thu, 11 Dec 2025 20:20:00 GMT
As is sometimes the case on the day following a Fed day, the bond market carried a bit more momentum in the same direction as yesterday afternoon. Fortunately, the momentum was toward lower rates this time around--a nice break from the past two Fed days which resulted in several days (and weeks) of higher rates. This leaves the average lender roughly in the middle of the range over the past 3 months. These are also the lowest levels seen since last Thursday for the average lender.
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