Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Near 3 Year Lows Ahead of Fed Tue, 16 Sep 2025 19:18:00 GMT
Mortgage rates dropped sharply lower today relative to the amount of movement in the underlying bond market with the average lender right in line with the lowest levels since late 2022. Because rates are directly tied to the prices of those bonds, the correlation tends to be almost perfect over time. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] But there are always scattered examples of one leap-frogging the other. These inconsistencies can arise for several reasons. In today's case, it happened due to late-day strength in bonds yesterday afternoon coupled with the structure of the underlying mortgage bond market. An explanation of the latter would be woefully esoteric in the context of a daily mortgage rate update--even for industry professionals. In the simplest possible terms, it has to do with the range of interest rates allowed in each grouping of mortgage backed securities (MBS). As investor sentiment shifts in favor of the next lower grouping, it effectively greases the skids for rates to slide down into the range associated with that grouping. The overall set-up is reminiscent of September 2024 when rates were doing the same thing for the same reasons ahead of Fed meeting with a virtual 100% chance of a rate cut. Back then, mortgage rates moved paradoxically higher after the Fed rate cut.  The same thing could happen this time, but it's by no means guaranteed. In fact, last year's Fed rate cut wasn't the catalyst for rising mortgage rates. Instead, it was an upbeat shift in economic data in early October. In other words, rates will take their next major cues from incoming economic data over the next few weeks. 
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Mortgage Rates Start Week at Another Long-Term Low Mon, 15 Sep 2025 19:12:00 GMT
Mortgage rates have done almost nothing but move lower over the past 4 months. The first Fridays in August and September account for about half of the total drop thanks to weaker results in the jobs report. Since the September 5th jobs report, rates have held a sideways-to-slightly lower range that's resulted in several additional "lowest since" headlines. There's nothing special about today in that regard. Bonds (which dictate rates) happened to improve, so rates inched to another 11+ month low. Today's levels aren't appreciably different than last Friday's.  Volatility is a bigger risk over the next two days thanks to economic data tomorrow morning and the Fed announcement on Wednesday. 
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Mortgage Rates Were Flat All Week No Matter What Other News Suggests Fri, 12 Sep 2025 19:20:00 GMT
The underlying bond market (which dictates the rates offered by mortgage lenders) weakened moderately overnight.  Weaker bonds equate to higher rates, all else equal.   "Higher rates" is contrary to many media outlets' coverage this week, but there's an important reason. Most news organizations that cover mortgage rates rely on Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey for their once-a-week update. Additionally, when Freddie's rate raises/falls appreciably, it receives even more attention. This frequently creates problems due to the timing and methodology of Freddie's survey. Specifically, the survey is an AVERAGE of the rates seen over the 5 days (Thu-Wed) leading up to Freddie's Thursday release. As such, if rates happen to fall sharply on a Friday (as was the case last week), our DAILY rate tracking will reflect that on Friday while Freddie won't catch up until the following Thursday (yesterday, in this case). By that time, rates hadn't moved any lower, and now today, they're actually a bit higher. All that to say, the rate drop you're hearing about from Freddie is the same rate drop we told you about last Friday.  There's been no meaningful improvement since then, and in fact, a modest increase in rates today. Today's move in bonds/rates wasn't driven by anything specific  and shifts of this size don't demand concrete justification in underlying data or events. It could simply be the case that traders were closing out trading positions for the week and the modest uptick in yields/rates was the incidental result. 
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Mortgage Rates Move Back to Long-Term Lows Thu, 11 Sep 2025 19:51:00 GMT
Today's inflation report (the Consumer Price Index or CPI) certainly had a chance to create volatility for rates, but things ended up staying fairly calm.  There are multiple subheadings of data that the bond market cares about when it come to CPI. Most of them were in line with expectations, or close enough to avoid surprising investors. The absence of surprise gave way to some improvement in bonds which, in turn, allowed mortgage lenders to start the day at just slightly lower levels.  Additionally, a higher reading in this morning's weekly jobless claims report may have helped. Officially, the top tier 30yr fixed rate at the average lender just barely scratched out a new 11-month low, but most borrowers would see little--if any--difference compared to the past 4 days.
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Mortgage Rates Hold Steady With Help From Econ Data Wed, 10 Sep 2025 20:02:00 GMT
Wednesday brought the first of this week's two key inflation reports. While the Producer Price Index (PPI) is the lesser of the two in terms of potential impact on rates, it came in far enough below expectations to make for a measurable improvement. The catch is that the improvement in question pertains to the underlying bond market. Before the data, bonds were slightly weaker, thus suggesting slightly higher rates.  But lenders don't release their rates for the day until a few hours of trading have commenced.  This leaves time for markets to react to early AM data such as today's PPI. Bottom line, PPI helped bonds which, in turn, helped rates hold steady as opposed to drift a bit higher. 
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Mortgage Rates Finally Tick Slightly Higher Tue, 09 Sep 2025 19:19:00 GMT
It had to happen at some point. After spending 4 straight days of setting new 11-month lows, mortgage rates finally moved higher today, but the headline is much scarier than reality. In fact, many borrowers won't see any detectable difference from yesterday's latest levels as the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rates moved a mere 0.01% higher. This preserves the entirety of the improvement seen last Friday when rates dropped sharply in response to the downbeat jobs report.  There haven't been major economic reports so far this week (the bonds that underly mortgage rate movement tend to react when important economic reports come in much higher or lower than expected). That changes over the next 2 days. Both Wednesday and Thursday bring important inflation updates via the producer and consumer price indices, respectively. Of the two, Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the bigger potential source of volatility. Taken together, they will help flesh out the inflation considerations that will help the Fed hone in on a pace for the rate cuts that are expected to start in 2 weeks. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Another 11-Month Low For Rates, But Just Barely Mon, 08 Sep 2025 19:34:00 GMT
To their credit, most mortgage lenders did an admirable job of aggressively pricing-in the bond market rally after last Friday's jobs report. Many mortgage market pros repeat the phrase "stairs down, escalator up" when it comes to the pace at which lenders change rates. The idea is that lenders are quicker to raise rates than cut them, but this clearly wasn't the case this time. Because of that healthy level of aggression, there wasn't as much room for improvement at the start of the new week compared to other Mondays that follow weak jobs report numbers. Case in point, after the August 1st jobs report, the following Monday accounted for more than a quarter of the 2-day drop in rates.  Compare that to today which only accounted for about 5% of the 2-day drop. But gains are gains, and the small improvement brings the average top tier 30yr fixed rate to another 11-month low. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Plummet Back to Fall 2024 Levels Fri, 05 Sep 2025 15:51:00 GMT
It's a well-known fact that the monthly jobs report is more capable of causing big reactions in rates than any other economic data. It happened last month in grand fashion, and it is happening again this morning.  Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), which is a count of new jobs created, came in at a mere 22k for August versus a median forecast of 75k. This is actually not the biggest miss when it comes to NFP, but it's big enough to spark a reaction in the bond market. In general, weaker jobs numbers prompt investors to buy bonds. When investors buy bonds, the price of those bonds goes up. When bond prices go up, rates go down. Today's net effect is an average top tier 30yr fixed rate drop from 6.45% yesterday to 6.29% today. This is back in the same range as the low rates in the Fall of 2024. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Hit Another 2025 Low Ahead of a Potentially Volatile Friday Thu, 04 Sep 2025 19:22:00 GMT
The jobs report is the most important scheduled event each month as far as interest rates are concerned. The last installment helped get the average 30yr fixed rate down from 6.75 to 6.50 because it came out much weaker than expected (in addition to revising the previous two months lower as well). The shift in the labor market outlook led the market to firmly price-in a Fed rate cut at the next Fed meeting in 2 weeks. Other economic reports since then have been a bit less dire, but still suggested enough economic uncertainty for rates to stay at recent lows.  Today's data was the latest example. It wasn't far from market expectations, but that left the door open for traders to continue hedging against the possibility of more labor market deterioration in tomorrow's report. Average 30yr fixed rates moved just a bit lower and are now at another new low for 2025 (lowest since October 3rd, 2024). The rate rally could easily accelerate if the jobs report is weaker than expected.  But if the data is surprisingly strong, rates would almost certainly move back up.  The magnitude of either move would depend on the magnitude of the surprise in the data.
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Mortgage Rates Officially Hit 11-Month Low Wed, 03 Sep 2025 19:42:00 GMT
October 3rd is a date that has come up many times in the past month of mortgage rate coverage. That's because there's been a veritable chasm between the rates on that day and every other day since then. Why? October 4th's jobs report caused an uncommonly large rate spike with the 30yr fixed average moving from 6.26 to 6.53 in a single day.  And that was just the beginning. October 4th kicked off a rising rate trend that ultimately saw 30yr fixed rates move over 7.25% in January. While those highs proved to be temporary, rates have generally held in the high 6's until the August 1st jobs report. The weaker labor market reading helped get the average 30yr rate back into the 6.5s--the lowest range since October.  On several occasions over the past few weeks, rates were able to claim the title of "lowest in 10+ months."  But now that the calendar has ticked to September 3rd, any additional improvement means we're at the lowest rates in 11 months. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] While that's great news in the big picture, the day-over-day change is fairly small.  The average borrower may not see much of a change from yesterday's levels.  Bigger moves are possible this week--especially after Friday's jobs report--but it's important to remember that those moves can play out in either direction, depending on the tone of the data.
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