Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage Rates Officially at 6 Week Highs Wed, 13 May 2026 18:58:00 GMT
Mortgage rates rose somewhat sharply yesterday to match the highest level since March 27th. They're just a hair higher today, thus officially at 6-week highs.  Whereas yesterday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) didn't have an obviously negative impact on rates, today's Producer Price Index (PPI) did. Both are big inflation reports. CPI is typically much more likely to cause a reaction in rates, but PPI showed a much bigger surge in inflation this morning. Even then, the underlying bond market wasn't too much worse by the end of the day and the mortgage-specific bond market actually made a full recovery. But that recovery was too gradual and shallow for the average lender to adjust their rates today. That left our rate index 0.01% higher day over day at 6.57% for a top tier 30yr fixed. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Match Highest Level Since March Tue, 12 May 2026 19:28:00 GMT
When the Iran war was in its initial escalation phase, the initial surge in markets took the top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.64% for the average lender by March 27th. Rates moved more than 0.30% lower by mid April as peace prospect improved.  The third phase of rate movement began in late April and has generally involved a jump back up toward 6.5% with the first 2 days of the present week accounting for a move from 6.42% to 6.56%. That matches the highest level seen since March 27th. Bonds yields (which underlie rates) have followed longer-term oil prices to their highest recent levels as Trump said the U.S. is not in a hurry to end the war.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Rising to Start New Week Mon, 11 May 2026 19:30:00 GMT
Last week was decidedly stronger for mortgage rates as they either held steady or moved lower on 5 out of 5 days. All told, it was a 0.14% drop from the previous week in terms of the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate.  The new week is starting out in opposite fashion with rates moving up 0.07% today alone. This follows news over the weekend that Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war. In general, the longer the war continues, the higher oil prices will remain.  Oil price don't dictate rates, but there's currently a lot of correlation due to inflation implications. Oil naturally impacts the cost to ship goods, so a rapid spike in oil prices increases inflation. Rates are based on bonds, and bonds hate inflation. In fact, inflation is technically a component of bond yields (aka "rates"). Despite the rocky start to the week, we're not necessarily destined to move in one direction or the other. Everything depends on progress toward peace, or lack thereof. To a lesser extent, this week's incoming economic data can also have an impact. Coincidentally, much of that data focuses on inflation for the month of April.
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Mortgage Rates End Week Slightly Lower Fri, 08 May 2026 17:52:00 GMT
It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the third highest since August 2025. But that ended up being the only day where rates went higher.  Wednesday brough the biggest chunk of the recovery with MND's daily rate index dropping 0.10%.  Tuesday and Friday (today) each added a 0.02% drop, taking the index to 6.42% after ending last week at 6.44%. War-related headlines were less of a factor today and volatility was unsurprisingly lighter as a result. This is an adjustment for seasoned rate watchers who are used to monthly jobs report being a distinct source of volatility. It's especially notable that the job count came in significantly higher with no ill effect on bonds/rates. Over the past 6 months, markets have shifted their jobs report focus from the payroll count to the unemployment rate, reversing decades of precedent. Today's outcome is more logical in that context as the unemployment rate was right in line with expectations at 4.3%.
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Mortgage Rates Erase Early Improvement Thu, 07 May 2026 18:46:00 GMT
The day began on a fairly hopeful note for the mortgage market. During overnight trading hours, the bond market improved following a report regarding a peace framework sent to Iran by The U.S.  When bonds improve, rates fall, all else equal. The gains were modest, but they allowed the average lender to set their first rates of the day at slightly lower levels compared to yesterday. Lenders prefer a "one and done" strategy when it comes to setting mortgage rates for the day, but they will make mid-day changes if the underlying market moves enough. The underlying market began moving more than enough just before the noon hour. Most lenders were forced to recall their initial rate offerings and make upward adjustments. The net effect at the time of printing is that the average lender is back in line with yesterday's levels. 
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Mortgage Rates Make a More Serious Recovery Wed, 06 May 2026 19:40:00 GMT
Mortgage rates spiked sharply on Monday, hitting the highest levels in more than a month as escalation fears ramped up surrounding the Iran war. Yesterday technically saw some recovery, but it may as well have been an "unchanged" day. Now today, we're seeing a more legitimate recovery with the average lender back down to last Friday's levels. The move follows a drop in oil prices inspired by progress toward a peace agreement. News came out overnight that The U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one-page memo outlining a more formal peace agreement. While full details would take time to hammer out, this would effectively end the war. Oil prices and bond yields fell at their fastest pace since mid April. Bond yields correlate with interest rates (in fact, they ARE interest rates), but mortgage rates are determined by slightly different bonds that are specific to the mortgage market. This means that mortgage rates and U.S. Treasury yields are almost always moving in the same direction, but at different paces, depending on the day.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Edge Just Barely Lower Tue, 05 May 2026 18:43:00 GMT
One popular refrain in the mortgage industry is that rates take the escalator on the way up and the stairs on the way down. Yesterday was definitely an "escalator" sort of day with the average lender moving up 0.12% for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate. Based on improvement in the bond market, rates are lower today, but just barely. It's not so much that rates are taking the stairs down, but more like they're a small child, waiting at the top of the staircase--afraid to take that first step. Some lenders are not even lower compared to yesterday's levels. Others are only modestly better. The absence of better improvement is at least partly attributable to the slower movement in the underlying bond market. Specifically, today's bond rally (good for rates) is less than one third the size of yesterday's sell-off (bad for rates).
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Highest Rates in More Than a Month Mon, 04 May 2026 19:19:00 GMT
Top-tier 30-year fixed rates are back above 6.5% today for the first time in more than a month for the average lender. Many lenders raised rates during the course of the day as well.  Those who didn't will likely have to raise rates tomorrow unless the underlying bond market makes a significant recovery overnight. Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are starting the week at higher yields in response to war-related developments. In general, escalation in the Iran war pushes bond yields higher by implying higher inflation via higher oil prices. Additionally, funding the war implies the need for more Treasury supply in the future as the U.S. issues debt to pay for the war. Higher supply leads to lower prices for bonds, and lower prices mean higher rates. Today's top-tier rate of 6.56% is the highest since March 27th, when it was 6.62% and the third highest since August, 2025. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates End Week on a Calm Note Fri, 01 May 2026 17:58:00 GMT
Low volatility was the most obvious theme for mortgage rates last week. From April 14th through last Friday, the range for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained in an ultra-narrow range of 6.29-6.33%. That trend persisted on Monday of this week, but things changed abruptly after that. Tuesday and Wednesday saw moderately big increases that took the average all the way up to 6.50%.  The past two days have been much calmer by comparison, even if rates remain elevated versus last week.  Today's resilience is most easily attributed to a slew of headlines suggesting that peace negotiations are at least being attempted by The U.S. and Iran. Additional progress toward a resolution (or lack thereof) is the most likely source of volatility for rates next week, but markets have also shown some willingness to react to big-ticket economic data (such as next Friday's jobs report). [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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Mortgage Rates Recover Some of Yesterday's Losses Thu, 30 Apr 2026 19:09:00 GMT
Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of the past 2 months, interest rate movement was clearly correlated with oil prices. Now today, both are moving back in the other direction though not for reasons that are as obvious as yesterday's. The rally began just after 2am ET with both oil prices and bond yields dropping in concert. Lower bond yields mean lower rates, all else equal. After hitting 6.50% for top-tier 30yr fixed rates, the average lender is back down to 6.45--roughly where they were yesterday morning before a round of mid-day increases in the afternoon. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]
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